Playoffs looking grim already. Bring back Manny.

sportspage:

Preseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

Written by: Alex Benton

Notable additions

John Lackey SP - five years, $82.5million

Mike Cameron CF - two years, $15.5million

Marco Scutaro SS - two years, $12.5million

Adrian Beltre 3B - one year, $10million

Notable departures

Jason Bay LF – NY Mets 
Billy Wagner RP – Atlanta Braves 
Takashi Saito RP – Atlanta Braves 
Casey Kotchman 1B – Seattle Mariners 
Nick Green SS – LA Dodgers 
Rocco Baldelli CF – Tampa Bay Rays (non-playing role) 
Alex Gonzalez SS – Toronto Blue Jays

The 2010 Boston Red Sox

For a team with one of the biggest payrolls in the league (the Red Sox 2009 payroll was a sizable $121,745,999, 4^th only to the Yankees, Mets & Cubs and looks to be in the $165,000,000 range this season), it seems rather strange to refer to the 2010 season as a transition year for the Boston Red Sox. But essentially, that’s what I think is happening. Restricted by a number of large immoveable contracts (JD Drew $14million, David Ortiz $12.5million) and with the club essentially paying players not to play (Mike Lowell $12.5million, Julio Lugo $9.25million), Red Sox GM Theo Epstein made it clear that the organization would be looking 12months down the track to sign marquee free agents once these large contracts were off the books. Still, this didn’t stop the Red Sox from going out and inking ex-LA Angels starting pitcher John Lackey to a five-year, $82.5 million contract this offseason. The Lackey signing mirrored the New York Yankees signing of AJ Burnett 12 months earlier, right down to the last dollar – five-years, $82.5million. When the Yankees tied up Burnett for this money, I was sure they would live to regret it. Burnett had just delivered one of the best seasons of his career, in a contract year no less (Alarm bells!), accumulating 18 wins at a respectable 4.07ERA. But would he be able to live up to his new large contract under the bright lights of the new Yankee Stadium? I had my doubts. Ultimately he proved a lot of people, including me, wrong by becoming a solid contributor in the Yankees rotation and didn’t blow up in key moments like I thought he would. So I think that’s exactly what the Red Sox will be hoping from with Lackey. Slot in behind Beckett and Lester and become the lynchpin of the rotation. With additional signings of Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre the Red Sox made their intentions very clear. This 2010 team will be centred around a strong bullpen and excellent defense. With that being said, let’s break it down:

Pitching

On paper, the Red Sox look to be in the desirable predicament of having too many good pitchers. John Lackey joins established aces Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86ERA) and Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41ERA) at the top of rotation. This top-3 would cause any opposition player to wince slightly when they walked up to the plate. In addition to the three aces, the Red Sox have the enigmatic Daisuke Matsuzaka, up-and-coming Clay Bucholtz and veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield vying for the last two spots in the rotation. The player that the most questions will be asked about this preseason would have to be the man from Japan. Matsuzaka, affectionately known as Dice-K, had a horror 2009 season. Hampered by injury and conditioning problems, the season was essentially a write-off. The Red Sox will be hoping that he can get back to his 2008 form (18-3, 2.90ERA), while bringing down his customarily high WHIP (5.0 BB/9 inning and 1.6 K/BB in 2008). If this can happened, then look out. Still, that’s a pretty big “if”.

The Red Sox are also the custodians of a very solid bullpen. Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Jonathon Papelbon (38-for-41 in closing situations last year) were all re-signed to go again on one-year contracts. Joining them back the pen is flame-throwing right-hander Daniel Bard and the much-maligned Manny Dalcarmen. I see the 25-year-old Bard having his breakout season this year. Papelbon, always the victim of heavy scrutineering from the Boston media, felt the heat more than ever last year. Despite finishing with stats of 1-1, 38 saves, 1.85 ERA, his walks tripled and he gave up key hits in big situations. Bard, who routinely throws his fastball 100+mph, has already been touted as the “closer in waiting” and 2010 could be the season that we see him take the torch from Paps.

Predicted opening day rotation

SP: Josh Beckett  
SP: Jon Lester 
SP: John Lackey 
SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka 
SP: Clay Bucholtz  
CP: Jonathan Papelbon

Offense

The Red Sox didn’t make a splash in the offseason with any big signings on offense. The new additions, as mentioned earlier, represent a solid upgrade to their defense, but their bats will not be frightening many opposing teams. New signing Mike Cameron doesn’t have the speed around the bags anymore and he won’t give you a great average at the plate (routinely a .250 hitter).But, even at the ripe old age of 37-years-old, he still provides the Red Sox with a very versatile outfielder with excellent defense. The same can be said about new Red Sox shortstop Marco Scutaro. The 34-year-old is great at milking the pitch count (as evidenced by his 90 walks last year) and will routinely get on base. He is also an above average defensive player at shortstop, providing the Red Sox pitchers with some much needed security at the position. Adrian Beltre, now 6 years removed from his NL-leading 48HR season in 2004, will replace the not-so-evergreen Mike Lowell at 3^rd base. Lowell struggled with his range when healthy last year and the Red Sox will benefit greatly from adding the 2007-2008 AL Golden Glove 3^rd baseman. Of the returning Red Sox, the offense will rely heavily on the power from the bats of Kevin Youkilis (27HR, 94RBI, .305) and Victor Martinez (23HR, 108RBI, .303), speed from the lightning fast leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury (AL leading 70SB in 2009) and an improved year from 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia . Despite comments from Red Sox manager Terry Francona that David Ortiz, “looks trim and he looks strong and he looks ready to go”, it’s hard to predict what the Red Sox will get from Big Papi this year. Your guess is as good as mine.

Predicted opening day line-up

LF: Jacoby Ellsbury  
2B: Dustin Pedroia 
CA: Victor Martinez 
1B: Kevin Youkilis 
DH: David Ortiz 
3B: Adrian Beltre 
RF: JD Drew 
CF: Mike Cameron  
SS: Marco Scutaro

Places to improve

Obviously, the Red Sox offense doesn’t leave anybody shaking in their boots. Ask any Red Sox fan what the team needs and the answer will invariably come back, we need another bat. But not just any old bat, a bat in the line-up that would instil fear in the opposition when approaching the plate. The Red Sox know this, and that’s why there is still talk of a potential Adrian Gonzalez deal going down at some stage during the season. Gonzalez, a two-time All Star, has belted 130HR in his 4 seasons at San Diego and has done this in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the country. With his contract up for renewal in 2011, he will obviously be demanding a lot more money, something that the Padres will not be able to offer him. So a decision must be made by the Padres front office as to whether they want to move him now or later. If the Red Sox are serious in their endeavours to obtain the talented right-hander, they would have to give up a number of their heralded minor leaguers. Current Padres GM Jed Hoyer was Theo Epstein’s right-hand-man for a number of years, so he knows the Red Sox farm system well. Whether or not Theo Epstein is willing to part with these ballyhooed youngsters is another debate altogether. I’m sure everyone is as anxious as me to see how this plays out.

Key Question for the Season

What will they get out of Big Papi and to a lesser extent, JD Drew?

We had to wait until the 40^th game of the season last year for Big Papi to hit his first home run. After two months he had a miserable 1HR at an average of .185. Following this abysmal start, he recovered to hit 27HR and 81RBI at .264 after June 1^st. So who are the Sox going to get?  The first half corpse that the Red Sox had to wheel out Weekend at Bernie’s-style for 2 months, or the second half resurgent player who found his swing and some of his pop. My gut feeling is that Red Sox fans may be disappointed. This is most likely Big Papi’s final season in Boston, so let’s hope he goes out with a bang, but I’m struggling to envision it.

It’s no secret that JD Drew hasn’t lived up to the five-year, $75million contract that he signed prior to the 2007 season. Every year people seem to talk themselves into him, my God look at that swing, and every season he seems to fall short of their expectations. He constantly misses games with injury and yet if you look past that, he is generally a consistent bat and is obviously an excellent outfielder when healthy. If Drew can stay off the IR in 2010 and have a few more moments like Game 6 of the 2007 ALCS (here’s hoping), then he will take a lot of pressure off the top of the order.

Outlook

Looking at it, the Sox are as strong, if not stronger than they were last year. Despite losing a guaranteed 30HR, 100RBI from Jason Bay, Theo Epstein has filled the gaps with players that can get on base and have the ability to make up for Bay’s departing numbers. The pitching rotation has strengthened due to the arrival of Lackey and their defense will be superior to what it has been for many years. There won’t be many shootouts at Fenway Park in 2010 — look for plenty of 2-1 and 3-2 score lines. But as long as Boston gets the “W”, Red Sox Nation won’t complain too much. That being said, I still can’t see them winning as many games as they did in 2009. If anything, they’ll be one or two off.

Final Prediction

94-68, (2^nd in AL East) AL Wild Card.